全球碳捕獲能力2030年前將增加6倍

據(jù)阿拉伯貿(mào)易網(wǎng)2022年10月18日倫敦報(bào)道，根據(jù)研究公司彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(BNEF)的《2022 碳捕獲、利用和儲(chǔ)存（CCUS）市場(chǎng)展望》報(bào)告，到2030年，全球碳捕獲能力將在目前水平的基礎(chǔ)上增加6倍，達(dá)到每年2.79億噸二氧化碳捕獲量。市場(chǎng)的大幅增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致2030年的預(yù)期碳捕獲能力比去年增加44%。  

 

CCUS技術(shù)是石化和水泥等難以減少碳排放行業(yè)所需的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)，也是通過安裝碳捕獲設(shè)備的天然氣廠提供全天候清潔能源所需的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。盡管如此，根據(jù)BNEF的研究，盡管該行業(yè)在過去兩年顯著加速發(fā)展，但全球碳捕獲能力的部署速度還不夠快，無法在本十年結(jié)束時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候目標(biāo)。  

 

如今，大部分的碳捕獲能力都用于從天然氣加工廠收集二氧化碳，并用于提高原油采收率。到2030年前，大部分碳捕獲能力將用于電力部門，用于低碳?xì)浜桶钡闹圃?，或用于減少工業(yè)來源的排放。 

 

現(xiàn)今捕獲的二氧化碳總量

 

如今每天全球捕獲的二氧化碳總量為4300萬(wàn)噸，占全球排放量的0.1%。如果所有已宣布的可能項(xiàng)目都投產(chǎn)，到2030年前，每年將捕獲2.79億噸二氧化碳，占目前全球排放量的0.6%。  

 

捕獲的二氧化碳的用途也將發(fā)生重大變化。去年，大約73%捕獲的二氧化碳用于提高原油采收率。到2030年前，儲(chǔ)存在地下深處的二氧化碳將使采油作業(yè)成為主要目的地，其中66%的二氧化碳將流入專門的儲(chǔ)存地點(diǎn)。推動(dòng)這一變化的是鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)存而非利用二氧化碳的立法，以及旨在使用碳捕獲和儲(chǔ)存(CCS)作為脫碳路線的項(xiàng)目，這些項(xiàng)目必須儲(chǔ)存二氧化碳以實(shí)現(xiàn)其目標(biāo)。 

 

BNEF的CCUS分析師、報(bào)告的主要作者戴維·路易斯·馬德里表示：“CCS正開始凸顯優(yōu)勢(shì)。它現(xiàn)在被用作脫碳工具，這意味著二氧化碳需要被儲(chǔ)存起來。在工業(yè)或發(fā)電點(diǎn)源附近缺乏二氧化碳運(yùn)輸和儲(chǔ)存地點(diǎn)可能是CCS發(fā)展的主要瓶頸。但我們已經(jīng)看到滿足這一需求的項(xiàng)目大幅增加。”

 

全球溫室氣體排放 

 

盡管碳捕獲項(xiàng)目公布數(shù)量迅速增加，但該行業(yè)仍遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)未能減少全球二氧化碳排放。為了在2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)全球氣候變暖在2攝氏度以下的目標(biāo)，全球?qū)⑿枰?030年捕獲10億到20億噸二氧化碳，這比目前的計(jì)劃高出一個(gè)數(shù)量級(jí)。立法者已經(jīng)意識(shí)到這種不匹配，并正在加大對(duì)該行業(yè)的支持力度。 

 

美國(guó)通過的《通貨膨脹削減法案》將CCUS的稅收抵免提高了70%，為CCUS技術(shù)在石化、鋼鐵、水泥和一些地區(qū)的電力部門提供了可行的商業(yè)案例。諸如此類的激勵(lì)措施意味著，美國(guó)等國(guó)家將繼續(xù)在CCUS方面處于全球領(lǐng)先地位。美國(guó)的稅收抵免現(xiàn)在非?？犊以摲ò笇⒓铀俟家掖己褪袠I(yè)以及直接空氣捕獲項(xiàng)目，為自愿型市場(chǎng)提供高質(zhì)量的碳補(bǔ)償。

 

BNEF可持續(xù)原料主管Julia Attwood說：“到2030年達(dá)到2.79億噸碳捕獲能力只是冰山一角。”“我們還沒有看到這些信用的全部影響，這使得這一展望對(duì)碳捕獲和儲(chǔ)存的未來是一個(gè)相當(dāng)保守的觀點(diǎn)。由于美國(guó)的開發(fā)商急于確保他們?cè)?032年截止日期前獲得信用。我們預(yù)計(jì)在今年，特別是在美國(guó)看到另一次跨越。”

 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

 

原文如下：

 

Global carbon capture capacity 'to rise sixfold by 2030'

 

The global capacity for carbon capture in 2030 is set to increase sixfold from today’s level, to 279 million tonnes of CO2 captured per year, according to research company BloombergNEF’s (BNEF) 2022 CCUS Market Outlook. Drastic growth in the market has led to a 44% increase in expected 2030 capacity compared to last year’s outlook.

 

Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) is a key technology needed to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors such as petrochemicals and cement, and to provide 24/7 clean power through gas plants fitted with capture equipment. Still, despite significant acceleration in the sector in the past two years, the world’s capacity for carbon capture is not being deployed fast enough to meet climate goals at the end of the decade, according to BNEF research.

 

Today, most capture capacity is used to collect carbon dioxide (CO2) from natural gas processing plants and used for enhanced oil recovery. By 2030, most capture capacity will be used for the power sector, for the manufacture of low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia, or to abate emissions from industrial sources.  

 

Carbon captured today

 

The amount of CO2 being captured today is 43 million tonnes, or 0.1% of global emissions. If all the likely projects that have been announced come online, there would be 279 million tonnes of CO2 captured every year by 2030, accounting for 0.6% of today’s emissions.

 

The destination for captured CO2 is also due to change significantly from the status quo. In 2021, some 73% of captured CO2 went to enhanced oil recovery operations. By 2030, storing CO2 deep underground will overtake oil recovery as the primary destination for CO2, with 66% of it going to dedicated storage sites. This change is being driven by legislation that incentivises storage over CO2 utilisation, and by projects that aim to use carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a decarbonisation route and must store the CO2 to meet their goals.  

 

“CCS is starting to overcome its bad reputation,” said David Lluis Madrid, CCUS analyst at BNEF and lead author of the report. “It is now being deployed as a decarbonisation tool, which means the CO2 needs to be stored. A lack of CO2 transport and storage sites near industrial or power generation point sources could be a major bottleneck to CCS development. But we are already seeing a big increase in these projects to serve that need.”

 

Global emissions

 

Despite rapid growth in capture project announcements, the industry is still far from making a dent in global emissions. In order to be on track for net-zero and less than 2 degrees Celsius of warming by 2050, between one and two billion tonnes of CO2 would need to be captured in 2030, an order of magnitude higher than current plans. Legislators have recognised this mismatch and are ramping up their support for the industry. 

 

The Inflation Reduction Act passed in the US increased tax credits for CCUS by 70%, making a viable business case for the technology in petrochemicals, steel, cement, and in some regions, power. Incentives like these mean that countries, such as the US, will remain global leaders for CCUS. The US tax credits are now very generous, and the law is set to supercharge project announcements in the ethanol and petrochemicals sectors, as well as in direct air capture (DAC), to provide high-quality carbon offsets for the voluntary market. 

 

“This 279 million tonnes of capacity in 2030 is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Julia Attwood, head of sustainable materials at BNEF. “We haven’t seen the full impact of these credits yet, making this outlook a fairly conservative view of the future of carbon capture and storage. We expect to see another jump in announcements in 2022, especially in the US as developers there rush to make sure they meet the 2032 deadline for credits.”