IRENA最新報告：實現(xiàn)氣候目標需＂激進行動＂

國際可再生能源機構(gòu)（IRENA）表示，世界必須采取"激進行動"，在2030年前每年投資5.7萬億美元的私人和公共資金以擺脫化石燃料，確保其造成的全球變暖不超過危險閾值。

 

該機構(gòu)3月29日發(fā)布的一份長達348頁的關(guān)于全球能源轉(zhuǎn)型狀況的報告指出，需要大規(guī)模增加太陽能和風能發(fā)電，同時提高能源效率，實現(xiàn)交通和供暖系統(tǒng)的電氣化，擴大綠氫的使用，并加強碳捕捉。

 

科學(xué)家們說，與1990年的水平相比，到2030年前，全球排放量需要下降45%。但最近的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管可再生能源增長迅速，但在能源需求上升和化石燃料使用增加的情況下，總排放量不降反升。

 

2015年，各國在巴黎同意將全球溫升限制在2攝氏度（3.6華氏度），最好不超過1.5攝氏度（2.7華氏度），以避免對地球造成潛在的災(zāi)難性后果。聯(lián)合國科學(xué)小組最近的一份報告發(fā)現(xiàn)，由于現(xiàn)在的溫度比工業(yè)化前的平均溫度高出1.1攝氏度以上，全世界數(shù)十億人已經(jīng)容易受到氣候破壞的影響。

 

La Camera在柏林舉行的一次能源會議上說："如果我們不采取行動，不對能源生產(chǎn)和消費方式作出巨大改變，即使2℃的目標也將岌岌可危，更不用說1.5℃目標。"

 

總部設(shè)在石油資源豐富的海灣酋長國阿布扎比的IRENA表示，7000億美元的投資應(yīng)從鉆井、鋪設(shè)管道和建設(shè)廢棄發(fā)電廠等化石燃料擴張中轉(zhuǎn)移出來。

 

這一要求得到了聯(lián)合國秘書長古特雷斯的響應(yīng)，他呼吁停止私營部門對煤電的融資，去年該項融資激增到了歷史最高水平。"他說："貸款人需要明白，煤炭和化石燃料是徒勞的投資，將導(dǎo)致數(shù)十億美元的資產(chǎn)擱淺。

 

在能源價格上漲和俄烏戰(zhàn)爭導(dǎo)致的對供應(yīng)短缺的擔憂中，美國等國家正在加大國內(nèi)化石燃料的生產(chǎn)，古特雷斯敦促各國政府不要拖延化石能源轉(zhuǎn)型進程。

 

他說："當前的危機表明，我們必須加快而不是放慢向可再生能源的轉(zhuǎn)型，這是實現(xiàn)能源安全的唯一正確途徑。"

 

這種呼吁得到了不同的回應(yīng)。

 

2022年3月在迪拜舉行的一個論壇上，主要石油生產(chǎn)國沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯聯(lián)合酋長國的能源部長，以及OPEC石油卡特爾的秘書長，堅持認為化石燃料是能源轉(zhuǎn)型的一部分，數(shù)千億美元的油氣投資必不可少。

 

雖然這兩個海灣國家已承諾將其境內(nèi)的排放量減少到零，但他們聲稱其所在國的桶油碳密度比在其他地方開采時低，并且他們沒有減產(chǎn)計劃。OPEC預(yù)計，未來幾十年將需要更多的石油，這主要是由于亞洲的人口激增。

 

即使是德國，在尋求于2045年前實現(xiàn)碳中和并在最近宣布了一系列進一步促進可再生能源的新措施時，也為滿足能源需求而繼續(xù)開采煤炭。德公用事業(yè)公司萊茵集團剛剛贏得了一個法庭案件，允許其推平德國西部村莊Luetzerath的一個農(nóng)場，為附近褐煤礦的擴建做準備。

 

然而，環(huán)境智庫Ember在3月發(fā)表的另一份報告發(fā)現(xiàn)，太陽能和風能正在取得長足進步。2021年，它們首次占到全球發(fā)電量的10%，現(xiàn)在至少有50個國家達到了這一里程碑的數(shù)字，其中包括世界上最大的五個經(jīng)濟體。

 

去年太陽能和風能發(fā)電比例首次達到兩位數(shù)的七個國家包括中國、日本和越南。

 

Ember的分析師Dave Jones在談到中國的可再生能源推廣時說："中國的風能和太陽能的數(shù)據(jù)絕對是瘋狂的。不過，為滿足其巨大的能源需求，中國也擴大了煤炭和核能的使用。

 

2021年，丹麥在可再生能源排行榜上名列前茅，其一半以上的電力來源于風能和太陽能，而越南、荷蘭和澳大利亞也在兩年時間內(nèi)將其需求的近十分之一從化石燃料轉(zhuǎn)為可再生能源。

 

根據(jù)Ember的計算，為了實現(xiàn)巴黎協(xié)定的1.5℃目標，到2030年，風能和太陽能發(fā)電必須繼續(xù)以每年五分之一的速度增長，即增長基數(shù)穩(wěn)定在20%。

 

英語原文

 

Energy agency: ‘Radical action’ needed to hit climate goals

 

BERLIN (AP) — The world must take “radical action” by investing $5.7 trillion in private and public money each year through 2030 to shift away from fossil fuels and ensure the planetary warming they cause doesn’t pass dangerous thresholds, the International Renewable Energy Agency says.

 

In a 348-page report published Tuesday on the state of the global energy transition, the agency said a massive increase in solar and wind power generation is needed, along with improved energy efficiency, electrification of transport and heating systems, expanded use of hydrogen made with renewables and greater efforts to capture carbon emissions.

 

cientists say global emissions need to drop 45% by the end of this decade compared to 1990 levels. But recent data show that despite rapid growth in renewable energy, total emissions are going up, not down amid rising energy demand and the expansion of fossil fuel use.

 

Countries agreed seven years ago in Paris to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), ideally no more than 1.5C (2.7F), to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for the planet. With temperatures now more than 1.1 degrees C above the pre-industrial average, a recent report by a U.N. science panel found that billions around the world are already vulnerable to climate disruption.

 

La Camera told an energy conference in Berlin that “not only the 1.5C, the 2C goal is really in danger if we don’t act and don’t make a dramatic change in the way we produce and consume energy.”

 

IRENA, which is based in the oil-rich Gulf emirate of Abu Dhabi, said investments of $700 billion should be diverted away from fossil fuel expansion such as drilling wells, laying pipelines and building power plants that can’t be used anymore.

 

This demand was echoed by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who called for an end to private sector financing for coal power, which surged to record highs last year.

 

“Lenders need to recognize that coal and fossil fuels are futile investments that will lead to billions of dollars in stranded assets,” he said.

 

With countries such as the United States ramping up domestic fossil fuel production amid energy price hikes and fears of supply shortages because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Guterres urged governments not to delay the shift away from fossil fuels.

 

“The current crisis shows that we must accelerate, not slow, the renewable energy transition,” he said. “This is the only true path to energy security.”

 

Such calls have met with mixed results.

 

At a forum in Dubai this week, energy ministers of major oil producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the secretary general of the OPEC oil cartel, insisted that fossil fuels are part of the energy transition and hundreds of billions of dollars in oil and gas investments are still needed.

 

While the two Gulf countries have pledged to reduce emissions within their borders to net zero, they tout their barrels of oil as less carbon-intensive than those extracted elsewhere and have no plans to scale back production. OPEC expects more oil will be needed in the coming decades, mainly due to a population boom in Asia.

 

Even Germany, which seeks to become carbon neutral by 2045 and recently announced a raft of new measures to further boost renewable power, continues to mine coal for energy needs. Utility company RWE this week won a court case allowing it to bulldoze a farm in the western German village of Luetzerath in preparation for the expansion of a nearby lignite mine.

 

Yet solar and wind are making great strides, a separate report published this week by the environmental think tank Ember found. For the first time they accounted for 10% of electricity generated globally in 2021, a milestone now reached by at least 50 countries including the world’s top five economies.

 

Among the seven nations that generated a double-digit percentage of their electricity from solar and wind for the first time last year were China, Japan and Vietnam.

 

“The numbers coming out of China are absolutely insane for both wind and solar,” Ember analyst Dave Jones said of the country’s renewables rollout. Still, to meet its voracious energy demand, China also expanded the use of coal and nuclear."

 

Denmark topped the renewables charts in 2021, getting more than half of its electricity from wind and solar alone, while three countries, Vietnam, the Netherlands and Australia, switched almost a tenth of their demand from fossil fuels to renewables in the space of two years.

 

Ember calculated that to help meet the Paris accord’s 1.5C-goal, wind and solar generation must continue to grow by an ambitious one-fifth each year through 2030, meaning 20% of an ever-increasing base.

 

本文于2022年3月30日發(fā)表于美聯(lián)社網(wǎng)站，作者Frank Jordans。題目為編者所加。